You are here: HOME >> Antivirus Software >> Check Point >> A Closer Look at ... Check Point Software Technologies, Blackbaud, and Autodesk

A Closer Look at ... Check Point Software Technologies, Blackbaud, and Autodesk

Written by zhangyingsha on April 09, 2010 10:45

The software sector has been relatively flat this year, as the Software HOLDRS Trust (SWH) has gained roughly 1% since the beginning of the yearNonetheless, this ho-hum technical performance has been met with optimism from options playersThe composite Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for the software sector sits at an annual low of 0.61, as traders have not been more optimistically aligned toward the shares at any other time during the past yearMeanwhile, nearly 52% of the 1,089 analysts ratings on the software sector components come in at a "buy."

While there is ample overall optimism to be found, I have located a trio of stocks that face a wealth of pessimistic sentiment despite putting in a stellar technical performanceFrom a contrarian perspective, this combination has bullish implications, as it indicates there is ample sideline money available to push the stock higher.

Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP)

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd(CHKP) provides security software and appliances for corporate networks and service providers, according to Hoover'sCheck Point's products verify remote users, control access, and block virusesIts ZoneAlarm products protect consumers from hackers, identity theft, and spyware

The company is slated to slip into the earnings confessional on April 26, with analysts predicting a profit of 53 cents per shareThis estimate is up from the company's year-ago profit of 45 cents per shareHistorically, the firm has surpassed the consensus estimate in each of the past four quarters.

Technically speaking, the shares of CHKP have put in a respectable performance this year, as the stock has gained more than 6%The equity has been in a nice uptrend from its October 2008 lowFurthermore, the security has rallied along the support of its 20-week and 32-week moving averages since March 2009.

Despite the stock's impressive technical strength and fundamental prowess, options players remain skeptical of the sharesThe Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for CHKP comes in at 0.73, which is higher than 90% of all those taken during the past yearIn other words, short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 10% of the time during the past 12 months.

However, sentiment may be starting to shift toward the securityThe International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have reported 3.3 calls purchased to open for every one put purchased to open during the past 12 monthsThis ratio of calls to puts is higher than 96% of all those taken during the past year, pointing toward a growing optimismIf options players shift to the bulls' camp, it could increase buying pressure on the shares.

The stock could still benefit from a round of upgrades from Wall Street should the firm report strong earningsZacks reports that nine of the 24 analysts following CHKP rate it a "hold."

To take advantage of an unwinding of the pessimistic sentiment toward this software giant, traders should consider the security's July 32.50 call.

Blackbaud (BLKB)

Blackbaud Inc(BLKB) provides financial, fundraising, and administrative software for not-for-profit organizations and educational institutionsSoftware offerings include The Raiser's Edge for fundraising management, The Financial Edge for accounting, and The Education Edge for managing school admissions, registration, and billingBlackbaud has about 22,000 customers in 55 countries, including colleges, environmental groups, health and human services providers, churches, and animal welfare groups

From a technical perspective, the security has edged more than 4% higher since the beginning of 2010The equity has rallied from its March 2009 lowIn fact, the security has benefited from the support of its 32-week moving average since April 2009The stock is currently in the process of pulling back to support at its 10-week, 20-week, and 32-week moving averages - trendlines it can use to springboard higher once again.

From a sentiment perspective, options players are extremely skeptical of the sharesThe SOIR for BLKB stands at a whopping 2.68, as put open interest more than doubles call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three monthsThis reading is also higher than 89% of all those taken during the past yearIn other words, short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 11% of the time during the past 52 weeks.

Wall Street is giving the stock the cold shoulderAccording to Zacks, the stock has earned two "strong buy" ratings, against five "holds," and one "strong sell." Should this pessimistic pack upgrade the shares, the stock could enjoy a boost in buying pressure.

Meanwhile, short interest on BLKB dropped by 3% during the past monthHowever, more than 2 million shares remain sold short, accounting for roughly 5% of the company's total floatA continued unwinding of these bearish bets could fuel a rally.

To take advantage of a continued rally in the shares of BLKB, traders should consider the security's June 22.50 call.

Autodesk (ADSK)

Autodesk Inc(ADSK) provides computer-aided design (CAD) softwareIts flagship AutoCAD product is used primarily by architects and engineers to design, draft, and model products and buildingsAutodesk's other products include geographic information systems (GIS) packages for mapping, and precision drawing software for draftingThe company also develops multimedia tools for digital content creation, including applications for animation, film editing, and creating special effects.

Looking at the stock's technical performance, we find that ADSK has soared more than 20% since the beginning of the yearThe equity has skipped higher from its March 2009 low, creating a series of higher highs and higher lows

However, this technical strength has been met with growing pessimism among options playersThe SOIR for ADSK stands at 1.89, as put open interest nearly doubles call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three monthsThis ratio of puts to calls is higher than 86% of all those taken during the past year, indicating that short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 14% of the time during the past 12 months.

Wall Street has yet to jump on the stock's bandwagon, as 11 of the 17 analysts following the security rate it a "hold" or worseAny upgrades from this group could add some lift to the shares.

Elsewhere, we find that short positions are beginning to unwindDuring the past month, the number of ADSK shares sold short dropped by 20% to 9.9 millionThis accumulation of pessimistic positions still accounts for more than 4% of the company's total floatAn unwinding of these bearish bets could fuel a significant rally in the shares.